In a world dominated by information overload, digital disinformation campaigns have become a potent tool for both nation-state and non-state actors. These campaigns extend far beyond the confines of conventional warfare. Today, societies are grappling with the overwhelming influence of disinformation, particularly in regions prone to instability.
Firstly, one must differentiate between disinformation and misinformation. Misinformation is false information spread without harmful intent, usually due to a misunderstanding of data or human error. Meanwhile, disinformation is deliberately false information that is first created and then spread to deceive a mass audience for political, financial, or ideological gains.
In a globalized world, nation-state disinformation campaigns specifically pose threats to international security by manipulating public opinion, disrupting social cohesion, and destabilizing political systems. State actors such as Russia notoriously use sophisticated tactics such as fake profiles, deep fakes, and coordinated troll farms to spread false narratives and create societal distrust.
Exploiting Economic Grievances through Disinformation
Economic crises are often one of many factors that create fertile ground for disinformation campaigns, as people facing hardships may be more susceptible to narratives that offer scapegoats for their grievances. This phenomenon can be observed in Yugoslavia during the 1980s and early 1990s.
Before the outbreak of the Yugoslav wars in 1991, the country faced a severe economic crisis. The 1980s saw rampant hyperinflation, culminating in a rate of 1,250% in 1989. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), “the annual average rate of retail price inflation in Yugoslavia increased from 12.5 percent in the 1960s to 17.5 percent in the 1970s and 75 percent in the 1980s (to 1988). The dinar was devalued by almost 30 percent in 1980, and throughout the 1980s there were successive devaluations in line with inflation aimed at maintaining the real effective exchange rate at the new lower level.”
These economic hardships likely made millions in Yugoslavia more vulnerable to nationalist rhetoric and state-sponsored disinformation. Nationalist leaders successfully exploited economic grievances to demonize other ethnicities, thereby fuelling ethnic tensions and conflict. The then presidents of Serbia and Croatia, Slobodan Milošević and Franjo Tuđman respectively, used fear-based messaging to instill a divisive ‘us versus them’ mentality that deepened societal divides and laid the groundwork for conflict. Yet it wasn’t just the political elite who weaponized nationalist rhetoric. One of the most well-known ethnonationalist outbursts came in 1986 when the Serbian Academy of Arts and Science published a memorandum in the regional newspaper, Večernje Novosti. The memorandum, which Bosnian War scholars argue played a pivotal role in escalating tensions in Yugoslavia prior to the outbreak of war, argued that Serbs in Yugoslavia were being economically, politically and culturally attacked by other ethnic groups, even alleging that a genocide was being committed against the Serbs in Kosovo and Metohija. This tactic of leveraging economic grievances to foster division and manipulate public opinion is a historically common strategy in disinformation campaigns.
But how do we effectively address the layered challenges of disinformation campaigns?
To understand this issue deeper, we interviewed two distinguished scholars on the topic: Tamar Mitts and Darko Brkan.
Contribution of social media
Tamar Mitts, an Assistant Professor of International and Public Affairs at Columbia University and a member of the Data Science Institute and the Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies, has dedicated her research to the intersection of technology and conflict.
She opens the conversation by emphasizing that while dis- and misinformation tactics are not new concepts, their current manifestation through social media has significantly amplified their impact.
Historically, propaganda influenced public opinion through traditional media such as radio, TV, and newspapers. Today, social media allows disinformation campaigns to reach larger audiences and transcend borders more quickly and efficiently. Mitts highlights that leveraging existing social and political tensions, particularly along ethnic lines, can be highly effective in disinformation campaigns.
“State actors who want public opinion to shift can use disinformation campaigns to change political views,” Mitts notes. “These campaigns exploit existing social and political fault lines. They have shown remarkable efficacy in leveraging vulnerabilities within societies, which can potentially lead to downstream effects that exacerbate existing issues,” she says.
“Disinformation does not work in isolation. Many online campaigns seeking to influence target populations focus on issues that would resonate with people’s grievances,” she says.
Mitts acknowledges that research hasn’t conclusively proven the effectiveness of digital literacy in mitigating someone’s susceptibility to disinformation.
“When discussing disinformation and digital literacy, it is very important to acknowledge that even digitally literate and highly educated individuals can fall prey to resonating disinformation campaigns, suggesting that factors beyond mere literacy are at play,” she says.
As for solutions, Mitts proposes a multifaceted approach. On the one hand, she highlights the importance of ensuring high digital literacy and teaching the public how to critically evaluate information. There is ultimately a need for political leaders to address the social, economic, and political issues that make certain populations more susceptible to believing and participating in the spread of disinformation.
On the other hand, Mitts highlights the importance of regulating social media platforms and content moderation. She emphasizes the need for international cooperation on this aspect.
The presence of artificial intelligence in disinformation campaigns is another concern for Mitts. While AI-generated content is currently identifiable and lacks creativity, she warns of the risk that AI could become more adept at creating convincing disinformation.
Offering recommendations for policymakers, Mitts suggests a data-driven approach to identify effective disinformation grievances and counter them at their roots.
Navigating the Disinformation Landscape in Bosnia
Darko Brkan, the founding president of Zašto ne (Why Not), a Sarajevo-based NGO promoting civic activism and government accountability, shares insights into the impact of disinformation campaigns on Bosnia and Herzegovina’s national security and stability.
In Bosnia, the impact of disinformation campaigns blurs the lines between external and internal sources. In other words, both foreign and local actors are contributing to disinformation. He points out that Bosnia’s geopolitical position, situated in between various global interests including Russia, China, US and Western Europe, makes it a hotspot for disinformation campaigns. The region’s complex dynamics attract external actors seeking to sway public perception and allegiance.
Brkan notes that digital literacy in Bosnia isn’t a major issue.
‘’Digital literacy is relatively high; however, information literacy, the ability to critically evaluate sources, is lacking,’’ he says.
The impact of disinformation narratives worsens when public officials and influencers reinforce them. Brkan believes that altering this dynamic and promoting responsible media practices could significantly reduce the disinformation problem in Bosnia.
Brkan was quick to point out that economic incentives, such as clickbait-driven revenue models, contribute to the widespread presence of disinformation in the media landscape. Clickbait, designed to attract as many clicks as possible, often prioritizes sensationalism over accuracy. This model incentivizes the creation and dissemination of disinformation as higher traffic generates more advertising revenue, thereby perpetuating a cycle of misinformation.
When countering disinformation, Brkan emphasizes the need for a multifaceted approach that includes fact-checking, counter-messaging, and addressing media biases. He advocates for incentivizing credible journalism and supporting initiatives like fact-checking and media literacy programs. He emphasizes the importance of incentivizing media actors to produce credible content, ensuring that accurate information is financially sustainable.
As for meaningful solutions, Brkan suggests implementing benchmarks that ensure government support is provided only to media outlets that produce credible and accurate content. He also proposes that marketing agencies allocate a percentage of their budgets to support media with a proven track record of credible reporting, giving these outlets a competitive edge in the media landscape.
Efforts need to be international, as well as domestic. Brkan argues that there is a critical need for the European Union (EU) to fully integrate the Western Balkans into its legislative framework, particularly the single digital market. While significant progress has been made with the EU’s new Growth Plan, which includes steps towards economic integration and access to the single market, full alignment and enforcement of these regulations are crucial. Brkan believes that continuing to hold platforms accountable through rigorous regulation could be a game-changer in the fight against disinformation.
Brkan’s recommendations underscore the multifaceted nature of countering disinformation. Namely, there is a need for collaborative efforts at both international and domestic levels to safeguard national security and stability in Bosnia and beyond.
Building resilience
The Yugoslavian war highlights how economic hardship can successfully pave the way for nationalist leaders. Amidst hyperinflation and unemployment, leaders like Milošević and Tuđman used fear-based narratives to frame other ethnic groups as threats, fostering division and setting the stage for violent conflict.
To prevent similar outcomes, addressing economic disparities that fuel resentment and susceptibility to disinformation is essential. Policies that reduce inequality, improve job stability, and expand education can strengthen communities against manipulation by populist leaders. Additionally, educating the public on the dangers of disinformation is crucial for a healthy democracy.
The lessons from Yugoslavia underscore the need for proactive measures to counter disinformation and promote economic security, thus reducing susceptibility to extremist agendas.
